Electoral Math — The best way To track The Race
Since that is the first column of the season, I’m going to be a bit conservative in my picks, that means I’m not giving states as excessive a rating as their current polling might indicate. If the polling’s been all over the map, then I need to see a string of polls showing related results earlier than I’ll believe them, to put this another means. In Safe Clinton I’d put the entire states now polling at 10 percent or better (the Strong Clinton states from the map on Electoral-Vote.com), with a few exceptions. Three states I omitted as a result of the polling from them is both so previous (Oregon hasn’t polled since May, Minnesota since April) or non-existent (New Mexico hasn’t been polled in any respect). And three other states had been left out because the polling has just not firmed up enough to believe that they’re really Safe Clinton states at this point: Michigan, Virginia, and New Hampshire.
Probable Clinton (5 states, 38 EV)
My preliminary picks for this class: Colorado, Connecticut, Minnesota, New Mexico, and Oregon. I believe all of them may finally move as much as Secure Clinton, but for now I nonetheless have slight doubts about each of them. A number of strong polls could simply allow me to move them up, although.
Probably States — Trump
Safe Trump (sixteen states, 93 EV)
I did not make any changes to the states listed as Sturdy Trump on the Electoral-Vote.com site. I believe all of them are pretty protected for Trump right now, and certain won’t change any time quickly.
Possible Trump (four states, sixty five EV)
Four states had been rated Possible Trump: Indiana, Mississippi, Missouri, and Texas. Indiana and Mississippi have been polling weaker than anticipated, however the polls are very outdated (March and April), so once someone will get around to polling them again, they will seemingly firm up for Trump. In Missouri, Trump has already slid backwards in the polls a bit, although he’s nonetheless got a snug lead. Texas has additionally been polling weakly enough to keep it out of the Safe Trump class, at least for now.
Lean Clinton (5 states, fifty six EV)
Again, because this is the primary column (with out a complete lot of again data to confer with but), there are a whole lot of states in all of the Tossup classes. In Lean Clinton, we’ve got five states. Michigan and New Hampshire are technically within the Robust Clinton ranks, but only because one poll in each (from the past few days) put Clinton up over 10 factors. Before that, each states have been rather a lot weaker (New Hampshire was even Weak Trump for some time). So I am not convinced that they yet should be increased than Lean Clinton. Pennsylvania and Wisconsin really must be not less than Probable Clinton, however both are key battleground states this year so I am hedging my bets and leaving them as only Lean Clinton for now. And Nevada is barely Barely Clinton right now, but Democrats will seemingly have the sting by Election Day.
Lean Trump (1 state, 6 EV)
There’s actually only one state which I believe could presumably be in play in November but which in all probability leans in direction of Trump proper now, and that’s Utah. Trump shouldn’t be very fashionable with Mormons, so it may be a hard battle for him to take Utah, however at the identical time it is exhausting to see it flipping all the option to Hillary, so Trump’s acquired to be seen with the edge right here.
Too Near Name (7 states, 108 EV)
This is an abnormally excessive variety of states that I refuse to foretell, however once more, it’s solely the primary column of the election season, so things will doubtlessly get higher later on. Three of these states are very familiar battleground states from the past few a long time — Florida, Iowa, and Ohio. In the intervening time, Clinton is up in Florida, Trump is up in Iowa, and Ohio is tied. Two of those states were added to the battleground mix by Barack Obama: North Carolina and Virginia. Presently, Trump has the lead in North Carolina and Clinton has a big lead in Virginia, however they’ve each already flipped again and forth between the candidates, in order that they nonetheless should be seen as too close to name. The actual information here — and probably the most important news yet in the realm of Electoral College math — is that Hillary Clinton has already added two states to the list of battleground states: Arizona and Georgia. In Arizona, Clinton at present has a slim lead and Georgia is marked down as tied (though at least one poll put Clinton up by four factors).
The question of which states are truly going to be battleground states this year continues to be an open one, nevertheless it definitely appears like the Democrats are having extra success poaching Republican states than the other approach around. Trump is going to should defend Arizona, Utah, and Georgia, while (up to now) his aim of poaching the Rust Belt (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin) seems to be falling flat. Ohio remains to be aggressive, nevertheless it virtually at all times is. And even the truth that Virginia and North Carolina are shut is testament to Obama’s confirmed capacity to broaden the map in the earlier two elections. Trump is doing better in Iowa and Nevada than past Republicans, however he really hasn’t opened up the general map enough to provide him more than a really slim path to the 270 EV he needs to win.
By my picks this week, Hillary Clinton has 18 states with 210 EV solidly in her corner. Donald Trump, then again, has extra states (20) however they solely add up to 158 EV. This puts Clinton ahead by fifty two EV very early in the game. Clinton still has 60 EV to make as much as get her across the finish line, however she’s got fifty six EV at the very least leaning her approach at this point. Trump has 112 EV to go to win, but at the moment solely has the 6 EV from Utah leaning his method. We still have seven states with a whopping 108 EV which could go either method, so nothing is written in stone at this point.
But Clinton does have an unlimited edge. Of the seven states that are too close for me to name, if Clinton wins any single certainly one of them it puts her across the 270 mark. Trump, alternatively, must win each single considered one of them to win — he’d must completely run the table. That is a normal spot for a Republican to be in, no less than from the last six presidential elections — the Democrats have had a number of paths to victory, while the Republicans need to barely eke out a win with only some Electoral School votes to spare. At this level, I’d predict that if Hillary Clinton wins either Ohio or Florida in November, she shall be our next president.
(State electoral votes are in parenthesis following every state’s identify. Washington D.C. is counted as a state, for a total of 51.)
Hillary Clinton Probably Easy Wins — 18 States — 210 Electoral Votes:
Safe States — 13 States — 172 Electoral Votes
California (55), Delaware (three), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (eleven), New Jersey (14), New York (29), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington D.C. (Three), Washington (12)
Probable States — 5 States — 38 Electoral Votes
Colorado (9), Connecticut (7), Minnesota (10), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7)
Donald Trump Likely Straightforward Wins — 20 States — 158 Electoral Votes:
Protected States — sixteen States — ninety three Electoral Votes
Alabama (9), Alaska (three), Arkansas (6), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (eight), Louisiana (eight), Montana (three), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (three), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)
Probable States — 4 States — 65 Electoral Votes
Indiana (eleven), Mississippi (6), Missouri (10), Texas (38)
Tossup States — 13 States — 170 Electoral Votes:
Tossup States Leaning Clinton — 5 States — 56 Electoral Votes
Michigan (sixteen), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10)
Tossup States Leaning Trump — 1 State — 6 Electoral Votes
Too Close to Call — 7 States — 108 Electoral Votes
Arizona (eleven), Florida (29), Georgia (sixteen), Iowa (6), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Virginia (thirteen)
Polling data gaps:
Polled, but no polling information for the reason that primaries — 5 States
(States which haven’t been polled since the beginning of June, with the dates of their final poll in parenthesis.)
Indiana (4/28), Maryland (four/17), Minnesota (4/27), Mississippi (3/30), Oregon (5/9)
No polling information at all, yet — 18 States
(States which haven’t been polled so far this year.)
Alaska, Alabama, Hawaii, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Washington D.C.West Virginia, Wyoming
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